This study examines the key factors influencing match results in European football, analyzing over 61,000 matches using Artificial intelligence (AI).
Some of the key findings include:
- Travel Matters: Distance matters as much as home advantage. Trips over 100 km significantly impact match results.
- Quality of the Opposition: The Elo gap between a team’s level (as measured via the Elo ranking) and the opposition’s is important.
- Recent Form Rules: The last five matches & overall season performance matter—a team’s momentum shapes each game.
- Managerial Impact: Manager tenure influences performance. There’s a sweet spot before diminishing returns kick in.
- Rest is Important: Less than three days rest affects the top team’s edge. It’s a strategic factor, not just a break.
- Squad Stability: Frequent rotations affect outcomes—cohesion matters. Balancing rotation with consistency is critical.
